Were not saying that discovering molecular drivers of cancer or cancer-causing genes doesnt deserve the Nobel Prize in medicine or physiology. But for Dr. Brian Druker (whose work led to the targeted leukemia drug Gleevec), Dr. Dennis Slamon (Herceptin), and Mary-Claire King (the BRCA breast- and ovarian-cancer gene), 2019 is probably not their year to be summoned to Stockholm: The 2018 medicine Nobel honored immuno-oncology, and according to STATs Nobel crystal ball, cancer wont win two years in a row.
With the naming of the science Nobels fast approaching the medicine prize will be announced on Oct. 7, physics on Oct. 8, chemistry on Oct. 9 polls, betting pools, and number crunching are in full swing, using approaches from toting up how many predictor prizes a scientist has won to calculating the periodicity of awards, meaning how many years pass before a specific subfield is honored again.
Past laureates, who get to submit nominations every year after their own anointing, have their favorites and, sometimes, their hunches, wrong though they usually are. As 2018 chemistry winner Frances Arnold of the California Institute of Technology said, Its not helpful to second-guess these things!
Indeed, the Nobels are known for some head-scratching choices over the decades, though less in the science prizes than in peace and literature. Nevertheless, some experts have developed systems that do pretty well. Since 2002, David Pendlebury of Clarivate Analytics has made 50 correct predictions (though usually not in the right year) by analyzing how often a scientists key papers are cited by peers.
Using that strategy, Pendlebury thinks the chemistry Nobel could go toinventors of DNA sequencing techniques: Marvin Caruthers of the University of Colorado, Leroy Hood of the Institute for Systems Biology, and Michael Hunkapiller, CEO of DNA sequencing goliath Pacific Biosciences.Without their [1980s] inventions, Pendlebury said, there would be no map of the human genome.More on that below.
In medicine, Pendlebury likes the chances of Hans Clevers of the Netherlands Utrecht University for research on the Wnt signaling pathway. Wnt controls how stem cells differentiate and how some cancers develop. If Wnt wins, then the private biotech Samumed (valuation: $12 billion) can say its investigational Wnt-targeting drugs are based on Nobel-winning research.
Pendlebury also has his eyes on John Kappler and Philippa Marrack of National Jewish Health in Denver for discovering T-cell tolerance, a mechanism by which the thymus eliminates T cells that would attack the self. That advanced understanding of autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and lupus, and is so basic and important one wonders, Why no Nobel yet?
In 2019, the answer might be, because the 2018 prize honored the hybrid of immunology and cancer, so immunology might have to wait another decade for its next turn. Thats sad news for Jacques Miller, who has never received a Nobel for discovering the function of the thymus and the fact that immune cells include T and B cells in the 1960s. Look how many Nobels were given for immunology based on Millers work, said MITs Phillip Sharp, who shared the 1993 medicine Nobel. There is just a lot of good science that will never get recognized.
If immunology and cancer are off the table, it opens a lane for optogenetics, the revolutionary mashup of genetic engineering and neuroscience. Here, Pendlebury likes Ernst Bamberg of the Max Planck Institute of Biophysics in Germany, Karl Deisseroth of Stanford University, and Gero Miesenbck of the University of Oxford in the U.K. Honoring optogenetics would be wonderful on many levels, starting with the power of the technique to identify neural circuits involved in virtually any function and disease. (The Nobel committees like techniques that enable others to make cool discoveries, Sharp said.)
Even more fun, a prize for optogenetics could open the floodgates of controversy. The key discoveries have so many fathers (alas, optogenetics has no mothers) that picking any three, the maximum for a Nobel, would likely trigger weeks (maybe years!) of carping about who got left out. As it happens, on Thursday the $500,000 Warren Alpert Prize will honor optogenetics, but the winners are Deisseroth, Miesenbck, MITs Edward Boyden (Deisseroths former postdoc), and Peter Hegemann of Germanys Humboldt University. If science had cage matches, we could root for one between Bamberg, Boyden, and Hegemann for the third slot in an optogenetics Nobel.
Records of Nobel committee deliberations remain secret for 50 years, so its anyones guess if theyre influenced by other big prizes. But the latter do seem to have predictive value. Thats one reason David Allis of Rockefeller University and Michael Grunstein of Hebrew University, who in the 1990s discovered one way genes are activated and quieted (through proteins called histones), are favorites (again) for a medicine Nobel. Theyve shared a slew of awards, including a 2018 Lasker and a 2016 Gruber Prize in Genetics, so 2019 could (finally) be their year, especially since there hasnt been a Nobel for gene expression since 2006, and the Allis/Grunstein discovery basically launched the hot field of epigenetics.
Sharp points to another scientist who made seminal contributions to the understanding of genes off/on switches: Yale Universitys Joan Steitz, who in 1979 discovered small noncoding RNAs that control gene expression.
For his crystal ball, biologist Jason Sheltzer of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory looks at periodicity, a strategy that helped him correctly predict last years medicine win for immune-oncology pioneer James Allison. Fields like infectious disease, immunology, and cancer win every 10 to 20 years, and so are probably off the table for 2019. But the last Nobel for DNA sequencing was way back in 1980, Sheltzer points out, and since then we have seen the complete sequencing of the human genome, one of humanitys towering achievements.
The problem is, hundreds of scientists worked on the Human Genome Project. Last year the Nobels honored the organizers of the project that discovered gravitational waves, so with similar reasoning the medicine or chemistry prize might go to Dr. Francis Collins, now director of the National Institutes of Health and the guy who herded all those cats to get the genome project done, and/or to the Broad Institutes Eric Lander, whose lab churned out much of the sequence. A third might be Craig Venter, the outsider whose private sequencing efforts raced the Collins/Lander government project to a bitter draw.
But if this trio wins, Pendleburys DNA-sequencing three (Caruthers, Hood, and Hunkapiller) wont. To complicate things even further, among the leading vote getters in an online poll for the chemistry Nobel is Shankar Balasubramanian of Cambridge University, who helped developed next-generation DNA sequencing. The Nobel committees grapple with questions of credit all the time: who did it, who did it first, who had the greatest impact, said chemist Peter Dorhout, past president of the American Chemical Society. I wouldnt want to be them.
For that and other messy reasons, when asked if sequencing has a shot at a Nobel, Sharp didnt hesitate: No, he told STAT.
Gene editing, on the other hand, last won in 1993, so it could be time for a new editing prize, Sheltzer tweeted. CRISPR in particular, [Jennifer] Doudna [of the University of California, Berkeley] will win for either chemistry or medicine.
The wisdom of the crowd agrees with him. Sigma Xi, the scientific research honor society, has been asking members to vote for most likely laureates in bracketology-style matchups. Doudna made the final four in chemistry. (Sigma Xi will announce the winner of its contest Thursday.) The other three finalists: Harvards Stuart Schreiber for research on signal transduction and master regulators of cell function such as the gene mTOR, now a hot target for cancer and other drugs; John Goodenough of the University of Texas for inventing lithium-ion batteries, and Stanfords Carolyn Bertozzi for basically developing bio-orthogonal chemistry, in which reporter molecules label biomolecules within cells.
Since STAT covers only life sciences, we have nothing to say about Goodenoughs chances (but thank you for making smartphones, digital cameras, and Teslas possible!), and agree that Schreiber and Bertozzi are stars. But the Doudna pick is a minefield. If she wins it alone, there will be hurt egos galore, starting with her collaborator Emmanuelle Charpentier of the Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology and including Virginijus iknys of Vilnius University. iknys is often called the forgotten man of CRISPR because Doudna and Charpentier had been running the table of prizes for their work turning a bacterial immune system into a DNA editor until he shared last years $1 million Kavli Prize in nanoscience.
If the Nobel committees prefer to keep firestorms of controversy for the peace prize (Greta Thunberg or Donald Trump?), they have many safe but stellar choices. Pierre Chambon and Ronald Evans have never won for discovering nuclear hormone receptors, where molecules as different as steroids and vitamins dock to make a whole suite of physiological reactions happen, Sharp points out. He also thinks Victor Ambros of the University of Massachusetts and Harvards Gary Ruvkun could bounce up this year for discovering microRNAs DNA-regulating molecules that turn out to control embryonic development, cancer, cell differentiation, and more. The pair has also snared a pile of predictor awards, including a Lasker, a Gairdner, a Breakthrough, and a Gruber Genetics Prize.
To all the many scientists whose work deserves a Nobel but who will not get an early-morning call from Stockholm next week, Sharp offers this quasi-consolation: Life is not fair.
Read the original post:
What's in the cards for this year's Nobel Prizes? - STAT
- Human blastocyst-like structures generated entirely from pluripotent stem cells. Shifting the paradigm of developmental biology? - ESHRE - April 4th, 2021
- Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market 2021 Is Rapidly Increasing Worldwide in Near Future | Top Companies Analysis- ESI BIO, Thermo Fisher,... - April 4th, 2021
- New Michigan law requires those receiving Johnson & Johnson vaccine be told it was developed using stem cells | TheHill - The Hill - April 4th, 2021
- Xenobots 2.0 are Here and Still Developed With Frog Stem Cells - Unite.AI - April 4th, 2021
- Global Human Embryonic Stem Cells Industry Market 2021 In-depth Industry Analysis, Growth By 2027:Lonza Group Ltd., Life Technologies Corporation,... - April 4th, 2021
- AgeX Therapeutics Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2020 Financial Results and Provides Business Update - Business Wire - April 4th, 2021
- Research Associate in Stem Cells and Regenerative Medicine job with KINGS COLLEGE LONDON | 246711 - Times Higher Education (THE) - February 17th, 2021
- Stem Cells Market Size 2021 by Share Growing Rapidly with Recent Trends, Size, Development, Revenue, Demand and Forecast to 2024 NeighborWebSJ -... - February 17th, 2021
- Cell transplant therapy could be a treatment for leading cause of blindness - The Denver Channel - February 17th, 2021
- Cellular Reprogramming Tools Market likely to touch new heights by end of forec - Business-newsupdate.com - February 17th, 2021
- Human Embryonic Stem Cells Market Analysis By Growth ... - February 9th, 2021
- Pros and Cons of embryonic stem cells - Pros an Cons - February 9th, 2021
- Worldwide Cell Therapy Industry to 2027 - Profiling Allosource, Medipost and Mesoblast Among Others - PRNewswire - February 9th, 2021
- Reactivation of the pluripotency program precedes formation of the cranial neural crest - Science Magazine - February 4th, 2021
- Should We Double The Age When Science Can Experiment On Babies? - 550 KTSA - February 4th, 2021
- Why Cynata is hopeful its COVID treatment trial will succeed where others have failed - Business News Australia - February 4th, 2021
- Missouri State Representative Indicted Over Alleged Stem Cell Therapy Scam - IFLScience - February 4th, 2021
- Global Human Embryonic Stem Cells Market increasing demand with Industry Professionalist |know the Brand Players forecast 2027 Jumbo News - Jumbo... - February 4th, 2021
- Push on to Allow Expanded Human-Embryo Research - National Review - February 4th, 2021
- Stem Cells Market is Expected to Thrive at Impressive CAGR by 2025 Murphy's Hockey Law - Murphy's Hockey Law - February 4th, 2021
- Stem Cell Therapy Market Size, Top Key Players, Applications, Business Statistics, Trends and Forecast 2021-2027 The Bisouv Network - The Bisouv... - February 4th, 2021
- Stem Cell Therapy Market Size to Reach USD 5,040 Million by 2028 | Rising Public-Private Investments and Developing Regulatory Framework for Stem Cell... - January 30th, 2021
- Stem Cell Therapy Market 2021: Global Key Players, Trends, Share, Industry Size, Segmentation, Forecast To 2027 KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper - KSU |... - January 30th, 2021
- Stem Cell Manufacturing includes Attractiveness and Raw Material Analysis and Competitor Position Grid Analysis to 2027 | Merck KGaA, Thermo Fisher... - January 30th, 2021
- RNA Molecules Are Masters of Their Own Destiny Regulating Their Own Production Through a Feedback Loop - SciTechDaily - January 30th, 2021
- The chromosomal protein SMCHD1 regulates DNA methylation and the 2c-like state of embryonic stem cells by antagonizing TET proteins - Science Advances - January 23rd, 2021
- North America to be the Torchbearer to Stem Cell Characterization And Analysis Tools Market NeighborWebSJ - NeighborWebSJ - January 23rd, 2021
- New Research Grant Seeks to Clarify the Role Genes Play in Modulating Inflammation - NYU Langone Health - January 23rd, 2021
- JARID2 and AEBP2 regulate PRC2 in the presence of H2AK119ub1 and other histone modifications - Science Magazine - January 23rd, 2021
- DiNAQOR Acquires EHT Technologies GmbH to Advance Engineered Heart Tissue R&D Capabilities - PRNewswire - January 19th, 2021
- TBC1D3 promotes neural progenitor proliferation by suppressing the histone methyltransferase G9a - Science Advances - January 19th, 2021
- 'He was very honored in his work' - Mercer Island Reporter - December 28th, 2020
- Israeli biotech firm's ALS treatment shows safety of use in trials - The Jerusalem Post - December 16th, 2020
- Ca Bishops To Work w/ Govt on Vaccination Campaigns - Catholic Herald Online - December 14th, 2020
- Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market 2019 | Analyzing The Impact Followed By Restraints, Opportunities And Projected Developments | DataIntelo -... - December 6th, 2020
- Stem Cell Market Technology 2021 and Application, Segmentation by Leading Global Players, Market Status by Share and Size Forecast to 2024 - The... - December 6th, 2020
- Stem Cell Therapy Market Size, Opportunities, Dynamic, Outlook and Forecast To 2027 - Cheshire Media - December 6th, 2020
- Stem Cells Market will grow at CAGR of 8.61% by 2027 Cheshire Media - Cheshire Media - December 6th, 2020
- Stem Cell Medical Research to Expand in California Following Passage of Prop. 14 - Times of San Diego - November 27th, 2020
- Mechanisms of Telomere Protection Are Unique in Stem Cells - Technology Networks - November 27th, 2020
- Stem Cells Market by 2020 Research Report by Manufactures, Types, Applications, Regions and Trends to 2024 | Absolute Reports - The Market Feed - November 25th, 2020
- Autologous Stem Cell Based Therapies Market Share, Growth by Top Company, Region, Application, Driver, Trends & Forecasts by 2026 - PRnews Leader - November 25th, 2020
- Stem Cells Market Research Provides an In-Depth Analysis on the Future Growth Prospects and Industry Trends Adopted by the Competitors | (2020-2027),... - November 25th, 2020
- Stem Cells Market 2020: Rising with Immense Development Trends across the Globe by 2027 - The Market Feed - November 25th, 2020
- Global Regenerative Medicine Market 2020-2025: Opportunities with the Implementation of the 21st Century Cures Act - Yahoo Finance - November 25th, 2020
- Stem Cell Characterization and Analysis Tool Market 2020: Potential growth, attractive valuation make it is a long-term investment | Know the COVID19... - November 25th, 2020
- Autologous Stem Cell Based Therapies Market 2020 Emerging Trend and Advancement - News by aeresearch - November 9th, 2020
- Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market 2020 Manufacturer Analysis, Emerging Trends, Top Companies and Forecast to 2027 - TechnoWeekly - November 7th, 2020
- Voters asked to approve $5.5 billion for stem cell research - Lebanon Express - November 7th, 2020
- Transcriptional priming as a conserved mechanism of lineage diversification in the developing mouse and human neocortex - Science Advances - November 7th, 2020
- Cell Therapy Manufacturing Market to be Worth USD 8 billion by 2030, predicts Roots Analysis - PRnews Leader - November 7th, 2020
- U.S. elections bring wins and losses for research community - Science Magazine - November 5th, 2020
- Stem Cell Therapy Market Size, Key Development Trends, and Growth Projection to 2027 - Stock Market Vista - November 5th, 2020
- Global Stem Cells Market 2020 Industry Outlook, Growth, Comprehensive Insights and Forecast 2025 - PRnews Leader - November 5th, 2020
- Panelists debate the implications and ethics of stem cell research - Johns Hopkins News-Letter - October 30th, 2020
- Stem Cell and Regenerative Therapy Market to Remain Balanced During the the COVID-19 Period - re:Jerusalem - October 30th, 2020
- Study Identifies Pitfall for Correcting Mutations in Human Embryos with CRISPR - Columbia University Irving Medical Center - October 30th, 2020
- Yale New Haven Health Docs: Interpreting the Uptick in Covid-19 Cases - Greenwich Free Press - October 30th, 2020
- Is the Pro-Life Movement on a Collision Course with the Coronavirus? - The Dispatch - October 29th, 2020
- Outlook for stem cell therapy - its role in tendon regeneration - different treatments for horse tendon injuries - Trainer Magazine - October 29th, 2020
- Yale Health advises against large Thanksgiving gatherings; eastern Connecticut now considered a 'hot spot' - The Westerly Sun - October 29th, 2020
- Stem Cell Therapy Market to Register Unwavering Growth During 2025 - The Think Curiouser - October 29th, 2020
- Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market Share, Analysis and In-depth Research on Market Size, Trends, Emerging Growth Factors and Regional Forecasts... - October 20th, 2020
- COVID-19 Analysis to Understand the Competitive Outlook of Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market - The Think Curiouser - October 20th, 2020
- Competitive Landscape of Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market 2020 | Global Industry Size, Volume, Trends and Revenue Forecast to 2025 - The Think... - October 20th, 2020
- Stem Cells Market 2020 is predicted to rise with a CAGR of XX% by 2026 | Including Growth Prospect, Market Size & Growth, Key Vendors, Top most... - October 20th, 2020
- Global Stem Cell Reconstructive Market- Industry Analysis and Forecast (2020-2027) - Stock Market Vista - October 20th, 2020
- Global Stem Cell Manufacturing Market: Industry Analysis and forecast 2019 2027: By Product, Application, End-Users and Region - Stock Market Vista - October 20th, 2020
- The Infodemic: Was Regeneron COVID-19 Treatment Developed Using Stem Cells and Fetal Tissue? - Voice of America - October 15th, 2020
- COVID-19 Impact on Global Human Embryonic Stem Cells Market 2020 Industry Overview, Demand and Insights Analysis Report by 2026 ESI BIO, Thermo... - October 15th, 2020
- Yes on 14 | Mailbox | independentnews.com - Livermore Independent - October 15th, 2020
- I've Spent Decades Studying How People Build Their Families. Here's What I've Learned Matters Most - TIME - October 15th, 2020
- Human Embryonic Stem Cells (HESC) Market Size, Regional Insights and Industry Dynamics By 2027 | By Top Leading Vendors Thermo Fisher, Esi Bio,... - September 30th, 2020
- Global Human Embryonic Stem Cells Market 2020 to Witness Huge Growth by 2026 | Top Key Players; Lonza Group Ltd., Life Technologies Corporation,... - September 30th, 2020
- Global Stem Cell Reconstructive Market- Industry Analysis and Forecast (2020-2027) - Unica News - September 30th, 2020
- Stem Cell Therapy Market Size, Analytical Overview, Key Players, Growth Factors, Demand, Trends And Forecast to 2027 - The Daily Chronicle - September 23rd, 2020
- Stem Cell Manufacturing Market 2020 Global Industry Analysis, Size, Growth, Trends, Share, COVID-19 Impact Analysis, and Forecast 2027| Merck Group,... - September 23rd, 2020
- The Fascinating Story of Q Stock BioRestorative Therapies Inc (OTCMKTS: BRTXQ) - MicroCap Daily - September 18th, 2020
- Global Stem Cell Therapy Market 2020 Research on Import-Export Details, Business Standards and Forecast to 2025 - Scientect - September 18th, 2020
- Study Focuses On New Discovery In Regenerative Medicine | newkerala.com Health News - New Kerala - September 18th, 2020